A new trade deal between the United States and United Kingdom could result in more than 200,000 otherwise avoidable deaths in England by diverting billions of pounds away from vital health services, according to an analysis published in The British Medical Journal.
In December, the UK agreed with Washington to increase the UK's spending on new medicines from 0.3% of GDP to at least 0.6% over the next decade as part of a broader deal aimed at avoiding punitive tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump. In return, the US said it will not impose levies on British exports of pharmaceutical products and medical devices for the next three years.
Cost projections and health impact
The analysis said the deal is expected to cost the UK's publicly funded National Health Service (NHS) an additional £45 billion ($60 billion) by the end of 2036 to pay for the new medicines. "In publicly funded systems with finite budgets, higher spending in one area inevitably takes away the opportunity to spend elsewhere," wrote the authors from the UK's University of York and University of Liverpool as well as New Zealand's Christchurch Hospital.
Unless the UK government provides extra funding, redirecting funds away from NHS services could lead to 229,000 excess deaths and exacerbate health inequalities, according to the analysis. It added that most of the avoidable deaths are likely to occur among people with heart and respiratory conditions, as well as gastrointestinal disease and cancer.
Criticism of deal's assumptions
Wednesday's analysis criticized what it argues is a false assumption of the deal: that avoiding Trump's threatened tariffs will produce economic benefits in the UK. "The UK remains a net importer of medicines, meaning that much of the additional expenditure is likely to accrue to multinational manufacturers rather than remain within the NHS or wider UK economy," the authors wrote.
By 2031, the authors said that the deal's projected costs are expected to be higher than the total annual value of UK pharmaceutical exports to the US.
The UK's Department of Health and Social Care, and Department for Business and Trade did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The UK government has praised the "landmark" US trade deal, which it expects to "safeguard medicines access and drive vital investment for UK patients and business."
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July 02, 2026
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