Russian troops are grinding their way into Kostiantynivka, a key stronghold in Ukraine's eastern defensive line, even as broader gains across the 1,200-kilometer front have largely stalled, according to military analysts and Ukrainian commanders.
Fighting has begun to seep into the city itself, with small groups of Russian soldiers attempting to infiltrate its outskirts, senior Ukrainian commanders said last week, suggesting close-quarters assaults could follow.
Strategic importance of the 'fortress belt'
Kostiantynivka is the southernmost of four key settlements forming a defensive line central to Ukraine's effort to hold the heavily industrialised Donetsk region. Occupying the city would provide Russian forces a foothold from which to move north along the belt, now the central axis of their campaign.
President Vladimir Putin has insisted Russia must control all of Donetsk before the war ends. Ukraine still holds around a fifth of the region after more than four years of fighting. Putin said last week Russia was close to capturing Kostiantynivka, whose pre-war population of nearly 70,000 has fallen to around 2,000.
Ukrainian commanders downplay imminent fall
In comments to Ukrainian media, senior commanders of Kyiv's 19th Army Corps dismissed Putin's claim as an exaggeration and said their troops were picking off small groups of Russians that had managed to enter. Maj. Gen. Viktor Nikoliuk, the head of Ukraine's eastern operational command, told Ukraine's public broadcaster on Thursday that Kostiantynivka could hold out at the current rate of manpower and resources.
While the tactical situation is worsening for Ukraine, the Russian infiltrations are not enough for "a rapid operational breakthrough," the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in a June 23 assessment.
Analysts warn of rising pressure
Russian efforts to envelop the city through pincer movements are steadily raising the cost for Kyiv of defending it, said Ukrainian analyst Ruslan Mykula, of the DeepState open-source mapping group. "A choice will have to be made: either raise the stakes or withdraw," he said. "And right now, the situation is such that the stakes are rising with each passing day."
Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird conflict analysis team in Finland said the city's fall "seems to be more of a question of time." Moscow's troops are also encroaching on the northern end of the fortress belt, threatening the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk with frequent air and drone attacks from around 15 kilometers away.
Logistics and civilian toll
Ukrainian supply routes are already under sustained pressure, with artillery, drones and guided bombs battering infrastructure along the road north from Kostiantynivka, troops in the area said. Reuters recently joined members of the "Predator" rifle brigade under the National Police, assigned to patrol the embattled route against drones and remotely dropped mines.
The route is too dangerous to evacuate the dead and wounded on standard vehicles, said 34-year-old serviceman Oleksandr Kosmin: "Everything happens on foot." In Druzhkivka, around 12 kilometers north, residents are being forced to leave as the fighting edges closer.
Russia's strained war effort
The creeping Russian gains around Kostiantynivka come despite mounting strains on its war effort caused by Ukrainian attacks on supply lines to and from Crimea, as well as longer-range strikes on the oil sector. Russian-installed authorities on the occupied Black Sea peninsula have imposed a state of emergency to deal with economic issues and have halted all fuel sales to individuals and businesses.
On the battlefield more broadly, Russian forces appear overextended and frontline assaults often amount to just one or two soldiers, said Mykula. In comments to Reuters, however, Denis Pushilin, the Kremlin-installed head of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, said Russia's campaign to capture more cities was continuing.
Reviewed by Admin
on
June 29, 2026
Rating:
